Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3424
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3424 · SGF → DFW
departs 7:00 AM CT · arrives 8:40 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Fri 10/2 51%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave SGF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
SGF is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
7am departures from SGF are usually not late
Weather at each end
SGF (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.44 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.