Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3462
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3462 · CID → DCA
departs 1:00 PM CT · arrives 4:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Fri 10/2 24%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave CID more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
CID is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CID
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
CID (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,033 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.