Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3486
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3486 · DFW → CRP
departs 8:21 AM CT · arrives 9:47 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 68%
Fri 10/2 47%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 9%
Wed 10/7 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at CRP more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±5 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CRP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at CRP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to CRP?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at CRP that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into CRP at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.52 in
CRP (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.67 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.