Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3486
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3486 · DFW → CRP
departs 8:21 AM CT · arrives 9:47 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Sat 10/3 25%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 9%
Wed 10/7 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at CRP more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CRP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at CRP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to CRP?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at CRP that day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into CRP at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.08 in
CRP (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.91 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.