Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3533
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3533 · DFW → OKC
departs 4:20 PM CT · arrives 5:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 40%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 18%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at OKC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to OKC?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
4pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.52 in
OKC (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.