Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3534
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3534 · MLI → DFW
departs 7:20 AM CT · arrives 9:41 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Thu 10/1 42%
Fri 10/2 28%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave MLI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MLI
Weather at each end
MLI (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.