Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3556
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 3556 · GSP → ORD
departs 11:46 AM ET · arrives 12:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 20%
Wed 10/7 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at GSP that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
11am departures from GSP are usually not late
Weather at each end
GSP (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.38 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.