Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3556
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3556 · GSP → ORD
departs 11:31 AM ET · arrives 12:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at GSP that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
11am departures from GSP are usually not late
Weather at each end
GSP (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.64 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.