Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3603 LANDED 11:31 AM CT, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

MQ 3603 · XNA → DFW

took off 10:37 AM CT · landed 11:31 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA

↓ 10am departures from XNA are usually not late

Weather at each end

XNA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3603 · XNA → DFW

Odds over time