Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3622
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
MQ 3622 · DCA → EYW
departs 1:40 PM ET · arrives 4:42 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±0 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.7d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at EYW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to EYW?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day
↑
1pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
EYW is prone to delays
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EYW
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.60 in
EYW (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.