Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3622
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 3622 · EYW → DCA
departs 5:19 PM ET · arrives 8:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 19h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave EYW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at EYW
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
DCA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
EYW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.47 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.