Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3654
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3654 · CLL → DFW
departs 5:00 AM CT · arrives 6:11 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Fri 10/2 23%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave CLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
0.7 in of rain forecast at CLL that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from CLL are usually not late
Weather at each end
CLL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.70 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.44 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.