Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3689
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 3689 · MFE → DFW
departs 5:25 PM CT · arrives 7:12 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 25h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±4 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave MFE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at MFE that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↓
MFE usually runs smoothly
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MFE (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.51 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.61 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.