Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3720
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3720 · MRY → PHX
departs 12:35 PM PT · arrives 2:31 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Fri 10/2 22%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave MRY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0 mi forecast at MRY that day
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
MRY is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MRY (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.