Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3720
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3720 · MRY → PHX
departs 12:35 PM PT · arrives 2:31 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave MRY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0 mi forecast at MRY that day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at PHX that day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MRY (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.