Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3741
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3741 · ORD → PIA
departs 8:08 AM CT · arrives 9:17 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 88%
Thu 10/1 52%
Fri 10/2 17%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIA more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at PIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PIA?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8am departures from ORD are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PIA
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PIA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.