Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3831
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3831 · PHX → TUS
departs 7:15 AM MT · arrives 8:07 AM MT
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Fri 10/2 10%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
TUS is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TUS (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.