Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3836
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3836 · TYR → DFW
departs 10:14 AM CT · arrives 11:15 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 65%
Fri 10/2 31%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 7%
Mon 10/5 7%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave TYR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at TYR that day
↓
TYR usually runs smoothly
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TYR (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.23 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.