Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3838
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 3838 · DFW → XNA
departs 9:04 AM CT · arrives 10:24 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 15h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.5d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at XNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to XNA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
9am departures from DFW are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into XNA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.61 in
XNA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 7.33333 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.