Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3838
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3838 · DFW → XNA
departs 9:04 AM CT · arrives 10:24 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Sat 10/3 24%
Sun 10/4
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at XNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to XNA?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,033 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
9am departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at XNA that day
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,033 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
XNA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.