Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3848
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
MQ 3848 · ORD → XNA
departs 11:45 AM CT · arrives 1:41 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 21%
Mon 10/5 9%
Fri 10/9 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at XNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to XNA?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
XNA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.