Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3856
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
MQ 3856 · MIA → HSV
departs 10:45 PM ET · arrives 11:58 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 19h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.0d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at HSV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HSV?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HSV (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.44 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.