Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3863
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 3863 · CLT → ACK
departs 11:03 AM ET · arrives 1:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at ACK more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ACK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at ACK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ACK?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at ACK that day
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at CLT that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into ACK at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
CLT (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 1.08 in
ACK (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.