Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3864
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
MQ 3864 · MVY → CLT
departs 2:50 PM ET · arrives 5:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±7 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.7d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MVY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at CLT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLT?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 1.1 in of rain forecast at CLT that day
↑
Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MVY is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
MVY (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CLT (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.83 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.