Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3875
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3875 · DFW → MLI
departs 2:09 PM CT · arrives 4:14 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 78%
Fri 10/2 55%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MLI more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MLI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at MLI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MLI?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
2pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MLI
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.44 in
MLI (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.