Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3883
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3883 · MOB → DFW
departs 7:37 PM CT · arrives 9:39 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 76%
Fri 10/2 56%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 38%
Mon 10/5 25%
Wed 10/7 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave MOB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at MOB that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MOB (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.49 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.