Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3969
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3969 · AEX → DFW
departs 5:41 PM CT · arrives 7:12 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 64%
Fri 10/2 58%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
17%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave AEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
17%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at AEX that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AEX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.53 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.44 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.