Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3969
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
MQ 3969 · AEX → DFW
departs 5:41 PM CT · arrives 7:12 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 64%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 48%
Sat 10/3 17%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±9 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
23%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave AEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
14%
Cancelled
23%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 2.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
AEX usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AEX (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.96 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.