Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3977
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3977 · DFW → ATW
departs 9:35 AM CT · arrives 12:09 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 72%
Fri 10/2 33%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATW more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±5 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at ATW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ATW?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
9am departures from DFW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATW
↓
ATW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.35 in
ATW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.