Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3977
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3977 · DFW → ATW
departs 9:35 AM CT · arrives 12:09 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 71%
Fri 10/2 42%
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATW more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at ATW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATW?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
9am departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATW
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.08 in
ATW (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.