Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3986
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 3986 · DFW → GSP
departs 9:41 AM CT · arrives 1:09 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 10%
Thu 10/8 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±1 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at GSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to GSP?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at GSP that day
↓
GSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Arrivals into GSP at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.77 in
GSP (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.33 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.