Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3986
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3986 · DFW → GSP
departs 9:41 AM CT · arrives 1:09 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Sat 10/3 34%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 10%
Thu 10/8 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at GSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to GSP?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.9 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at GSP that day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
9am departures from DFW are often late
↓
GSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
GSP (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.44 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.