Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3997
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
MQ 3997 · DCA → HSV
departs 8:20 AM ET · arrives 9:26 AM CT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 13%
Thu 10/8 13%
Fri 10/9 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.4d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at HSV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HSV?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
HSV usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.09 in
HSV (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.