Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3999
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
MQ 3999 · DFW → GCK
departs 1:15 PM CT · arrives 2:46 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 15%
Fri 10/9 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at GCK more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
4.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GCK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at GCK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to GCK?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
1pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GCK
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.27 in
GCK (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.