Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3999
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
MQ 3999 · GCK → DFW
departs 3:16 PM CT · arrives 4:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 26%
Mon 10/5 13%
Fri 10/9 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave GCK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GCK
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
GCK (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.