Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3999
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3999 · GCK → DFW
departs 3:16 PM CT · arrives 4:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave GCK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GCK
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
GCK (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.