MQ 4001 · DFW → GJT

took off 3:47 PM CT · expected to land 4:34 PM MT (scheduled 3:33 PM CT → 4:55 PM MT)

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at GJT more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to GJT?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GJT

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.25 in

GJT (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4001 · DFW → GJT

Odds over time

How late will it get to GJT?