MQ 4001 · DFW → GJT

departs 3:38 PM CT · arrives 5:05 PM MT

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at GJT more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GJT?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into GJT at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GJT

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.02 in

GJT (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4001 · DFW → GJT

Odds over time

How late will it get to GJT?