Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4008
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 4008 · DFW → LIT
departs 3:43 PM CT · arrives 5:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 75%
Fri 10/2 50%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 21%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at LIT more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at LIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LIT?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
3pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.35 in
LIT (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.