Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4023
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
MQ 4023 · PNS → ORD
departs 3:09 PM CT · arrives 5:56 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 20%
Mon 10/5 15%
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave PNS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at PNS that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
3pm departures from PNS are often late
↓
PNS usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
PNS (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.93 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.