Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4049
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 4049 · MIA → XNA
departs 9:16 PM ET · arrives 11:23 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 15%
Wed 10/7 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at XNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to XNA?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from MIA are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
XNA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 6.33333 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.