MQ 4078 · TLH → MIA

departs 8:06 PM ET · arrives 9:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at TLH that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ TLH usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

TLH (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.26 in

MIA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4078 · TLH → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?