Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4086
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 4086 · PHX → XNA
departs 3:49 PM MT · arrives 8:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Fri 10/2 24%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at XNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to XNA?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into XNA at that hour are often late
↑
3pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
XNA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.