Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4095
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 4095 · DFW → AUS
departs 12:20 PM CT · arrives 1:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 49%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 8%
Thu 10/8 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±3 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.77 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.