Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4095
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 4095 · DFW → AUS
departs 12:20 PM CT · arrives 1:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 49%
Sat 10/3 46%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 8%
Thu 10/8 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS
↑
12pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.