Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4114 LANDED 8:21 PM CT, ~177 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

MQ 4114 · DFW → PNS

took off 6:56 PM CT · landed 8:21 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at PNS more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at PNS that day

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.22 in

PNS (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.93 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4114 · DFW → PNS

Odds over time