Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4126
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
MQ 4126 · PHX → TUS
departs 5:05 PM MT · arrives 5:54 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 18%
Mon 10/5 14%
Fri 10/9 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Gusts to 30 kt forecast at PHX that day
↓
This flight has been late 12% of the time recently
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TUS (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.