Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4166
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 4166 · DFW → TYR
departs 10:49 PM CT · arrives 11:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 60%
Fri 10/2 33%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at TYR more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TYR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at TYR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to TYR?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at TYR that day
↓
TYR usually runs smoothly
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.35 in
TYR (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.