MQ 4228 · MSP → ORD

departs 6:06 PM CT · arrives 7:43 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from MSP are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

ORD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4228 · MSP → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?