Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4232 LANDED 11:53 AM ET, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

MQ 4232 · RDU → DCA

took off 11:13 AM ET · landed 11:53 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ MQ's recent on-time record

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 10am departures from RDU are usually not late

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.36 in

DCA (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.35 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4232 · RDU → DCA

Odds over time